New inflation data pushes next year's cost-of-living estimate above this year's 2.8% raise, adding roughly $73 a month to the average retirement check.
The estimated 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) rose again this week, with forecasters now projecting a 3.5% to 3.6% increase — the largest jump retirees have seen since the 8.7% adjustment that took effect in 2023.
How the Estimate Compares to Recent Years
- 2023 COLA (actual): 8.7% — the largest in over four decades, driven by post-pandemic inflation
- 2026 COLA (actual): 2.8%
- 2027 COLA (current estimate): 3.5% to 3.6%, pending final data
The Senior Citizens League's Mary Johnson currently projects 3.5%, while AARP's estimate stands at 3.6%. Both figures have moved around in recent months — Johnson's projection was as high as 4.7% in June before falling to 3.4% in July and settling near 3.5% in August.
What's Driving the Estimate
Social Security's annual raise is calculated from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), averaged across July, August and September. July's CPI-W ran 3.4% higher than a year earlier, and August's came in at 3.5%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September's figure on October 14, 2026, which will set the final, official COLA.
What It Could Mean for Your Check
On the current average retired-worker benefit of $2,085.98 a month, a 3.5% raise would add about $73; a 3.6% raise would add roughly $75. The adjustment applies to retirement, survivor and disability benefits alike, and typically shows up in January payments.
Nothing is final yet
The Social Security Administration will not confirm the actual 2027 COLA until mid-October, once the full third-quarter CPI-W data is in. Estimates from private analysts can still shift before then.
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